Long Beach Mortgage Rates Report: March 6, 2008

Posted on March 06, 2008 04:28:38 by Brian.Brady

Long Beach Real Estate Market Statistics- March 2008 - Absorption Rate

Long Beach Real Estate Market Statistics - March 2008

Absorption Rate is a good way to get a really clear picture of the Long Beach real estate market and is a great tool to use to assess your competition when listing your Long Beach properties.  The numbers reflected below indicate a highly competitive and strong buyers market, one in which the right price is detrimental to the potential sale of your Long Beach Homes, Condos and Investment Properties. 
 
A six month supply of homes indicates a normal market; less than 6 months would indicate a Sellers Market, over 6 months indicates a Buyers Market. 

Current Absorption Rates - Long Beach California

9/1/2007 - 2/29/2008 - 6 months

Long Beach Condos

Closing escrow at an average of about 50 condos per month citywide, it would take close to 14 months to sell off the existing inventory of 704 condominiums for sale in Long Beach. 
Closed Escrows = 303 ÷ 6 mos. = 50.5 per month absorption rate
Per month absorption rate = 50.5 ÷ 704 (Active + In Escrow Listings) = 13.94 months’ supply of condos for sale. 

• Expired = 228
• Withdrawn = 9
• Cancelled = 167

Long Beach Homes

Closing escrow at an average of about 90 homes per month citywide, it would take over 15 months to sell off the existing inventory of 1404 homes for sale in Long Beach. 
Closed Escrows = 541 ÷ 6 mos. = 90.17 per month absorption rate
Per month absorption rate = 90.17 ÷ 1404 (Active + In Escrow Listings) = 15.57 months’ supply of homes for sale. 

• Expired = 799
• Withdrawn = 45
• Cancelled = 625 

Long Beach Duplex’s

Closing escrow at an average of about 9 per month citywide, it would take well over 2 years to sell off the existing inventory of 232 duplex’s for sale in Long Beach. 
Closed Escrows = 55 ÷ 6 mos. = 9.17 per month absorption rate
Per month absorption rate = 9.17 ÷ 232 (Active + In Escrow Listings) = 25.30 months’ supply of duplexes for sale. 

• Expired = 171
• Withdrawn = 5
• Cancelled = 70

Long Beach 4-Plex’s
Closing escrow at an average of about 3.5 per month citywide, it would take well over 3 years to sell off the existing inventory of 141 four-plex’s for sale in Long Beach. 
Closed Escrows = 21 ÷ 6 mos. = 3.5 per month absorption rate
Per month absorption rate = 3.5 ÷ 141 (Active + In Escrow Listings) = 40.29 months’ supply of 4-plex’s for sale. 

• Expired = 101
• Withdrawn = 2
• Cancelled = 53

Posted on March 04, 2008 01:22:18 by Laurie.Manny

Can I Lose My Long Beach Home Because Of a 7-Year ARM?

In today’s Long Beach Mortgage Rates Report, I highlighted a 7-year ARM.  The post drew this comment:

You suggest a 7 year ARM? What happens if home values don’t fully recover in 7 years? I dont want to be stuck owing more than what my home is worth when my rate resets.

Great question.  It shows how The Media is disseminating poor information about this mortgage crisis.  A 7-year ARM is a fully-amortized loan (which means it will be paid off in 30 years) with a fixed rate and fixed payment period for the first 84 months.  For a loan funded in March, 2008, that means the first payment will be in May, 2008 and will not change until April, 2015; let that sink in….2015.

At the end of 7 years, the loan turns into a one year ARM, amortized for 23 more years.  The new interest rate is determined by adding the index and the margin together.  Most ARMs are based on the LIBOR index, which today is about 3.5%.  Most ARMs have a margin of 2.75.  That means that if this loan were to adjust today, the new rate would be about 5.75%…not so bad, huh?  As you can see, rate rests aren’t that awfully bad.  In fact rate resets are accounting for less than 2% of the foreclosures in California.

The following Question and Answers are not part of the original comment but frequent questions I hear daily.  My answers may appear to be flippant; they’re not intended to be. 

WARNING:  HARD-CORE TALK ABOUT THE REAL ESTATE DECLINE AND MORTGAGE CRISIS

Why is everyone getting foreclosed upon, in California, then Brian? 

Simple.  They never could afford the loan in the first place.  Borrowers (and unscrupulous mortgage originators) “gamed the system” and overstated their income ( they lied about it) to get a loan approval.  When the loan reset, they couldn’t refinance their existing loan (because the “liar” loans aren’t available anymore). 

The loan balance, for this loan, will never go up because the borrower is required to pay both principal and interest each month.  The loan balance will actually be much lower in 7 years.  For a $400,000 loan, the balance will be paid down to about $355,000 by year 2015.  The loan can then be refinanced or kept.

What if values don’t go up?

The loan can still be refinanced unless values drop even further and continue to drop, over a seven year period.  Values would have to decline some 10% more, and stay down for 7 years for this loan to not qualify for a refinance.  If you think that might happen, don’t buy a home in Long Beach.  Long Beach real estate prices have dropped quite a bit, since last year.  It would be highly unlikely that they drop even more, and refuse to rise in the next 7 years.

Can you guarantee that I’ll be able to refinance or that values won’t drop, In Long Beach, over a 7 year period?

Of course not.  All I can point out is that Southern California real estate is still in demand over the long-term.  Some 12 million more people are expected to move to California between 2000 and 2020; that’s some 50,000 people each month.

…but you can’t GUARANTEE this, can you, Brian?  That’s why I should take a 30-year fixed rate loan, right?

I can’t guarantee that the sun will set on the Pacific Ocean tomorrow.  Nothing in life is guaranteed.  The difference between a 7-year ARM and a 30-year fixed rate loan is a full 1%; for a $400,000 loan, that some $325/month in savings.  Invest that $325 difference into a conservative mutual fund and watch it grow to $40,000 over the next 7 years.

If Long Beach real estate continues to drop, over the next 7 years, you will have made a bad investment by buying a home in Long Beach.  The economy will be in a full-blown depression.  That extra $40,000 will come in handy for your relocation.  (not meant to be a smart-alec comment; it’s the truth)

Loans are personal.  That’s why we suggest you use a mortgage planner, like me.  We’ll match up your risk tolerance, financial goals, and liquidity with the right loan.  Is a 7-year ARM better than a 30-year fixed rate mortgage?  Not always but with a 1% discount on the rate, it sure gives us lots of room to be wrong.  I can be contacted by telephone at (858)-777-9751

Posted on March 03, 2008 11:26:41 by Brian.Brady

The 7 Dangers of Overpricing Your Long Beach Homes and Condos

Overpricing Your Long Beach Homes and Condos, is not a good idea.  Thinking that raising the price to leave wiggle room for negotiation is the first trap to avoid.  That game is old and played out, buyers aren’t interested in playing.  They want to offer you less than asking price and they want asking price to be at or below market.  They want “a deal” and if they don’t get it, they aren’t going to buy. 

Here is a little sneak preview of what you will be up against if you decide to test the waters and list your home or condo above market value. 

7 Dangers of Overpricing Your Long Beach Homes

1) MINIMIZES OFFERS   

Overpriced properties discourage prospective buyers from making offers since the difference between the listed price and market price often negates reasonable negotiation.  A more realistic price is much more likely to receive a realistic offer. 

2) LESS SHOWINGS

Overpriced listings get less showings.  Agents often will not show overpriced listings and lose interest in overpriced properties that sit on the market for any extended length of time without drastic price reductions.  With so much inventory on the market it is in the buyers best interest for the agent to show homes within the buyers price range; agents also do not want to lose credibility with their buyers.  Agents do not spend as much time showing these homes and condos as they might if they had been priced right at the beginning. 

3) QUALIFIED BUYERS

Overpriced properties fail to attract qualified buyers.  You (the seller) are perceived to be unrealistic and problematic.  If you are very overpriced your agent is perceived to be less than intelligent for having taken the listing at that price to start with, but that is a whole nuther issue.  It is in your best interest to drive in as much buyer traffic as possible early in the listing.  No Traffic = No Buyer.

4)  LOSES PROSPECTS FROM SIGNS AND ADVERTISING

Prospects that learn about the property from the sign get turned off if it is overpriced.  It is the first question they ask.  They want to know the price before they ask how many bedrooms and baths or about condition.  They will not even view the home if you are overpriced.  Price is everything in todays market.  Buyers viewing the property online will use available compare tools and pass on seeing your home. 

5) FINANCING PROBLEMS

Appraisers will not be able to bring in the value on the home and lenders will not fund a loan for an overpriced property.  If for some reason the overpriced property passes appraisal, the underwriter will likely quash it toward the end of the escrow timeline.  You will have been off the market for that timeline and market prices will have dropped further.  An all cash offer with the appraisal waived is a fantasy.  No buyer, regardless of their ability to, is going to overpay for a Long Beach home, in todays market.

6) PRICE REDUCTIONS

Reducing your price to keep up with the market is critical.  You should check your price every week or two with your agent and make sure you are priced at or under market. 

7) LESS FOR SELLER    

Eventually market interest in overpriced properties completely declines.  As this stage is reached, many sellers become desperate and begin to feel that they would sell at any price.  In the meantime, the seller must bear maintenance and holding costs.  Additionally the actual market value will have decreased while the property sits on the market.  The net result is the seller nets much less than they could have if the property was correctly priced in the first place, this is called “Chasing the Market Down” and is the absolute worst mistake a seller can make in today’s market.  

Not pricing your Long Beach home or condo right and not taking appropriate price reductions in a timely manner, can result in:

• Your home not selling
• Short Sale
• Foreclosure
  

If you are considering selling your Long Beach Home or Condo be smart, price your home to sell.  After all, you don’t want to list the home, you want to sell it.  Contact us today for a free home evaluation. 

Staging and Home Improvement related articles:

• Preparing Your Long Beach Homes for Sale - Home Staging Tips

• Long Beach Home Staging-Define Your Long Beach Homes with Color!

• Redesign Home Staging for your Long Beach Homes

• Staging Your Long Beach Homes

• Remodeling Your Long Beach Home?
• Curb Appeal On A Budget
• Summer in Long Beach California - Reduce Your Energy Costs and Stay Cool
• Self-Healing Homes
• Why Stage Your Long Beach Home or Condo?
• Long Beach Backyards-Ponds and Nasty Swimming Pools
• Long Beach Home Kitchen Remodels
• Long Beach Home Bathroom Remodels
• Stage YOUR Long Beach Home to Sell

Read also:

• Chasing the Market Down - Are You Guilty?
• Long Beach Homes-Issues for 1st Time Home Buyers
• Selling YOUR Long Beach Home - It’ Tough Out There - Are YOU ready for this real estate market?
• Selling YOUR Downtown Long Beach Condos-State of the Market

Posted on March 03, 2008 06:35:19 by Laurie.Manny

Long Beach Condos For Sale Under $200k-February 2008

Looking for a Deal?

Long Beach Realtors keep hearing buyers saying that they want “A Deal".  Many investors have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the Long Beach real estate market to drop low enough to swoop in and pick up a few great rental properties that will generate income. 

There are 29, 2 bedroom condos for sale in Long Beach, UNDER $200,000.  Many have been on the market for a long time, as is witnessed by the days on market (DOM) in the chart below; and are now price reduced into the very affordable range. 

For renters or first time home buyers this is an opportunity to own that has not existed in Long Beach for many years. 

For Long Beach investors, with a down payment of around 20%, many of these Long Beach Condos will produce the rental income you have been waiting for.

Most of these Long Beach Condos are either bank owned, forclosures or short sales. 

Do you want to make a deal?

Areas:

11 - Westside

3 - Eastside - Circle Area

4 - Downtown Long Beach - Alamitos Beach

7 - North Long Beach

TGNO - Thomas Guide Number

DOM - Days on Market

Read Also:

Downtown Long Beach Duplexes For Sale 90802 90813

Downtown Long Beach Homes For Sale 90802 90813

Downtown Long Beach Condos Market Report January 2008

Long Beach Homes-Issues for 1st Time Home Buyers

Posted on February 28, 2008 02:15:40 by Laurie.Manny