Long Beach 2009 Real Estate Market Outlook
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This 2009 forecast, for the Long Beach real estate market is written by Brian Brady.
If bifurcation was the theme for the 2008 Long Beach real estate market, convergence Will be the theme in 2009. Both the bifurcation of 2008 and the Convergence of 2009 are closely tied to the ability to finance Long Beach properties. While prices were lower across Long Beach, this past year, the under $400,000 real estate market was extremely hard hit. Vanishing stated income and Sub-prime loan programs reduced the number of qualified buyers, driving prices dramatically lower in areas like California Heights, Lakewood Plaza/Rancho, Bixby Knolls, and the non-waterfront condominiums in Downtown Long Beach. In some cases, those prices are below the fundamental value, and offer a great buy for investors and owner-occupants alike.
The Long Beach neighborhoods of Belmont Shore, Belmont Heights, Bluff Park, Alamitos Beach and Virginia Country Club might not fare so well in 2009, While I expect Long Beach homes priced below $500,000 to hold relative value next year, it’s the homes priced over $700,000 and below $1,000,000 that are most vulnerable to vanishing financing. I discussed this very challenge in my 2009 San Diego Real Estate Outlook:
The key component to the housing recovery for San Diego remains in The ability for a home buyer to get financing. The US Treasury stepped In to provide financing for properties under $625,000, by:
(a) increasing the loan limits for FHA, conforming and VA loans to 115% of median price (expected Jan,2009)
(b) nationalizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (guaranteeing the loan from default)
The luxury home market ($1,000,000 and above) is generally a cash Market. As such, credit availability affects those housing units far Less than the “rank and file” developments inhabited by those of us in The “working class". Expect SOME softness in the luxury home market but If the buyer likes the home, she’ll either pay cash or have access to Highly specialized financing available to the only asset-rich.
After January 1, 2009, the government loan limits will be capped at $625,000 for Long Beach. This means that rates for loan amounts above that number will be as much as 2% higher than the government-backed Financing and downpayment requirements will be 25% or greater. If you’re selling a home in that price range, the buyer pool is about to shrink in about 3 months.
Exacerbating this financing issue is the loss of jobs a recession may bring. Unemployment in California has spiked this past year. Job losses have been concentrated in the lower to middle income range in 2008 while the upper-income jobs have remained relatively safe. A recession will hit those upper-income jobs harder than the lower income ones. I said that 2008 is the year where the “rich will get not rich and the poor will get clobbered“; that certainly happened this year. 2009 will be the great equalizer as the higher-priced homes decline and higher-paid jobs disappear.
What then, should be your strategy for 2009? Investors should pay close attention to the lower-end of the real estate market for fantastic buys. Long Beach real estate is a great investment and opportunities to own a property that offers positive cash flow are evident today in the under $500,000 market. There will be some great opportunities in those mid-priced homes, next year as well as the $700,000 to $1,000,000 drops below the financing caps.
If you’re planning on selling a Long Beach home in that $700,000 to $1,000,000 price range, better to list it today rather than to wait until after the new year. Veterans can buy up to $729,000 with no money down. FHA buyers can buy up to $729,000 with 3.5% down. Conventional buyers can buy to that limit with as little as 5% down…today. Next year, that all goes away.
Brian Brady is a Managing Director with World Wide Credit Corporation, a San Diego-based mortgage banking and brokerage firm. Google calls him America’s #1 Mortgage Broker; you can call him at (858)-777-9751
| Laurie MannyLong Beach Realtor (562) 212-5420 |
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Main Street Realtors Belmont Heights 244 Redondo Avenue Long Beach California 90803 |
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